• Category 5: Slow-moving Hurricane Dorian continues to pound the Bahamas. It’s the strongest storm anywhere on the planet this year.
• The US: Residents on the southern US east coast have been warned to prepare for hurricane-force winds, though forecasts vary about when and where it may make landfall, from Florida to the Carolinas.

When will Dorian turn north?

From CNN Meteorologist Judson Jones

The fate of a US landfall is all dependent on if and when this storm turns northward. 

Right now the storm is moving west at 1 mph. The question is when will it turn northwest. 

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says it expects the storm will turn to the north over the next couple of days.

But the variance in timing of the turn will make all the difference in the world. Just a change of a few hours could be the difference between a landfall in Florida and no landfall at all. This is why even though the NHC has the forecast track miles offshore, it includes the “cone of uncertainty.” Anyone in the cone is still at risk for a landfall. 

The good news for the US is that most of the forecast models meteorologist use — like the European and the American models — show the storm remaining offshore. 

Only a few of the models bring the storm inland to Florida and a couple more bring the hurricane into North Carolina. 

This turn in direction is what everyone on the East Coast will be watching for. 

No matter if the storm comes ashore or not the effects of this extremely dangerous hurricane will be felt from West Palm Beach to the Outer Banks of North Carolina. 

The US Coast Guard is restricting movement at some ports

The US Coast Guard is restricting vessel movement at two Florida ports due to expected gale force winds from Dorian within the next day.

The Coast Guard set the port condition Yankee for the Port of Jacksonville and Fernandina effective at 8 a.m. ET today. This means the USCG is expecting dangerous winds within 24 hours, and all movement must be approved.

Sustained winds between 39 and 54 mph are possible within 24 hours near the ports, the USCG said in a press release Monday.

There’s no power on New Providence island

The Bahamas is experiencing a total island-wide power outage on New Providence, according to the Bahamas Power and Light Company (BPL).

Efforts to restore power continue to be hampered by the flooding on the island, the company said.

Here’s the full BPL statement:

Bahamas power and Light Complany Ltd. (BPL) continues its diligent efforts to restore power to New Providence. While those efforts continue to be hampered by the flooding on the island, we in the process of restoring power, with the first circuit re-energized around 7:29 ‘WI, but tripping out shortly thereafter. A system fault at one of our primary substations — believed to be a result pf moisture ingress — is believed to have led to a chain of events culminating in a total island wide outage. The team is working feverishly at present to power up the system, balancing load demands with the capacity available in the system with that primary substation still offline. We will continue to update the public as information becomes available.

More than 1,000 flights have been canceled today

From CNN’s Greg Wallace

More than 1,000 flights within, into, or out of the US have been canceled today, according to the aviation tracking website FlightAware.

While flights could be canceled for a variety of reasons, it’s clear that most of the cancellations are due to the storm. The top five airports with the most inbound and outbound cancelations are in Florida: Ft. Lauderdale, Orlando Melbourne, Palm Beach, Miami, Orlando Sanford.

The Ft. Lauderdale, Orlando Melbourne, and Palm Beach International airports are all planning to close at noon on Monday.

Florida lawmaker’s family is riding out the storm in the Bahamas

Democratic member of the Florida House of Representatives Shevrin Jones posted a video sent to him by his family in the Bahamas. It shows Hurricane Dorian battering the windows and the door of their house. 

He said his family is doing well but suffered a lot of damage. “Praying for my family and others in the Bahamas,” he said in another tweet.